What is currently being underestimated is the likelihood that US president Trump, after several high-risk strategic successes (Iran, Venezuela), overplays his hand and makes a mistake similar to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which was intended as a quick operation but has turned into a four-year war. If the US were to force Denmark to relinquish control of Greenland, this could become the catalyst for what Europe is currently trying to talk into existence: a new European defense architecture that would effectively replace NATO. If the US were to target Canada, most likely by supporting a secessionist movement in provinces such as Alberta or Quebec, this could spark a nationalist movement to defend Canada, similar to Ukraine’s response to Russian aggression. Besides this, in both scenarios, pressure on the US dollar could intensify, as many Western investors would be incentivized to reduce their dollar holdings. Since 2020, the US dollar has already experienced declining exposure among central banks. If this trend were to accelerate, it could destabilize the US economy through upward pressure on interest rates.
The capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by the United States military has shown that Washington is moving decisively to consolidate control over the Western Hemisphere. What remains underappreciated, however, is that by asserting control over these countries, the US would effectively control around 40% of global oil production capacity. This would give the US, for the first time in history, a high degree of influence on global oil prices. Whereas the 1973 oil crisis, driven by Arab producers, once destabilized the US economy, Washington could soon wield comparable leverage over others while keeping energy prices relatively low at home. This strategy thus functions as a structural counterweight to China, which imports roughly 75% of its oil needs but dominates global rare earth metals production capacity. In effect, the US and China are dividing control of the world’s key inputs of economic and military power.
The popularity of media platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube gave rise to the phenomenon of “doomscrolling,” an activity in which users spend excessive amounts of time ‘mindlessly’ scrolling through short videos, reinforcing the widespread belief that especially young people are addicted to this form of entertainment. Yet the data tells a different story. Although YouTube Shorts of up to three minutes account for around 75% of total views on the platform, more than half of the time spent on YouTube is devoted to videos longer than 20 minutes. At the same time, short-form content is becoming longer: Instagram now allows videos of up to three minutes, and TikTok even permits uploads of up to one hour. The rebirth of long-form video content suggests that young people are not excessively distracted by or addicted to short videos, but are increasingly pushing back against them and seeking longer, more immersive media experiences.
